iPad cannibalization talk crazy, says analyst

Computerworld - Apple's iPad hasn't materially affected consumer PC sales, as some have claimed, a research firm said today.

During the 2010 holiday sales season, only about 12% of iPad buyers abandoned a PC purchase to acquire the tablet, making cannibalization a minor factor, according to survey data compiled by the NPD Group.

The decline of consumer PC sales growth rates has a much simpler explanation: The huge numbers posted by PC makers in the aftermath of Microsoft's 2009 launch of Windows 7.

"We're comparing PC sales against a record high," said Stephen Baker, an analyst with NPD. "Yes, consumer notebook sales are down, but it's linked to that, not the iPad. The comparisons are to the best sales period in history."

Last month, other research firms, including IDC and Gartner, said global PC sales were down 3.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Gartner claimed that tablet sales -- the iPad makes up the vast bulk of those -- was one of the reasons why PC sales slumped.

Baker disagreed.

According to NPD's poll of iPad owners, only 12% bought the tablet instead of a standard PC during last year's holidays, a dip from the 14% who purchased an iPad in the first six months of its availability.

Most consumers haven't seen the need to buy a desktop or notebook PC because they purchased one in the past 12 to 18 months, Baker. "That's the reason why iPad sales haven't cannibalized PCs," Baker said.

What Baker called conventional wisdom -- that tablet sales eat into low-priced notebooks -- "is most assuredly incorrect," he said. It's the over-$500 Windows consumer notebook where PC sales have been hurt. From October 2010 to March 2011, sales of those notebooks fell by 25%.

Even Apple has argued that iPads have dented PC sales. "Yes, I think there is some cannibalization," said Tim Cook, Apple's chief operating officer, during a January earnings call.

While Baker refused to echo Cook, he did warn that iPads could shake up PCs, perhaps even the lowest-priced notebooks, within the next year or year and a half.

"The big challenge for [PC manufacturers] going forward with the iPad is for that second or third computer in the house," Baker said. "In the next six to 12 to 18 months, as consumers think about replacing the rest of their installed base of older PCs, people are going to start asking, 'What's right for me, another PC or a tablet?' That should give anyone in the PC business cause for concern."

If that happens, the mix of devices in the home would radically change. "There used to be two or three desktops in the home, now there's a single desktop and a couple of notebooks," Baker said. "But in the future, it may be just one notebook and several tablets."

The idea that the iPad has caused the consumer PC slow-down is understandable. "Usage tightly overlaps for the majority of people," said Baker, ticking off such things as email and Web browsing. "Most people don't move their notebooks or iPads very far, most people use them for the same kinds of things. It's easy to see why people have thought that the iPad cannibalizes PC sales."

NPD's survey also showed that consumers are passing on 3G-capable iPads, opting instead for the less-expensive Wi-Fi models. In the 2010 holiday season, for instance, the $499 Wi-Fi iPad accounted for three out of every four iPads sold at retail.

Mobile carriers -- in the U.S., that's AT&T and Verizon -- have had little luck selling the iPad, Baker said, noting that carrier stores accounted for just 3% of iPad sales during the holidays.

"The carrier stores have struggled with selling things other than phones," said Baker. "For tablets, the subsidized model hasn't really worked. Carriers aren't willing to subsidize tablets down to the price of smartphones, and customers aren't willing to pay more than that. They just do not see the utility in 3G connectivity."

Gregg Keizer covers Microsoft, security issues, Apple, Web browsers and general technology breaking news for Computerworld. Follow Gregg on Twitter at @gkeizer or subscribe to Gregg's RSS feed . His e-mail address is gkeizer@computerworld.com.

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iPad cannibalization talk crazy, says analyst - Computerworld

Computerworld - Apple's iPad hasn't materially affected consumer PC sales, as some have claimed, a research firm said today.

During the 2010 holiday sales season, only about 12% of iPad buyers abandoned a PC purchase to acquire the tablet, making cannibalization a minor factor, according to survey data compiled by the NPD Group.

The decline of consumer PC sales growth rates has a much simpler explanation: The huge numbers posted by PC makers in the aftermath of Microsoft's 2009 launch of Windows 7.

"We're comparing PC sales against a record high," said Stephen Baker, an analyst with NPD. "Yes, consumer notebook sales are down, but it's linked to that, not the iPad. The comparisons are to the best sales period in history."

Last month, other research firms, including IDC and Gartner, said global PC sales were down 3.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Gartner claimed that tablet sales -- the iPad makes up the vast bulk of those -- was one of the reasons why PC sales slumped.

Baker disagreed.

According to NPD's poll of iPad owners, only 12% bought the tablet instead of a standard PC during last year's holidays, a dip from the 14% who purchased an iPad in the first six months of its availability.

Most consumers haven't seen the need to buy a desktop or notebook PC because they purchased one in the past 12 to 18 months, Baker. "That's the reason why iPad sales haven't cannibalized PCs," Baker said.

What Baker called conventional wisdom -- that tablet sales eat into low-priced notebooks -- "is most assuredly incorrect," he said. It's the over-$500 Windows consumer notebook where PC sales have been hurt. From October 2010 to March 2011, sales of those notebooks fell by 25%.

Even Apple has argued that iPads have dented PC sales. "Yes, I think there is some cannibalization," said Tim Cook, Apple's chief operating officer, during a January earnings call.

While Baker refused to echo Cook, he did warn that iPads could shake up PCs, perhaps even the lowest-priced notebooks, within the next year or year and a half.

"The big challenge for [PC manufacturers] going forward with the iPad is for that second or third computer in the house," Baker said. "In the next six to 12 to 18 months, as consumers think about replacing the rest of their installed base of older PCs, people are going to start asking, 'What's right for me, another PC or a tablet?' That should give anyone in the PC business cause for concern."

If that happens, the mix of devices in the home would radically change. "There used to be two or three desktops in the home, now there's a single desktop and a couple of notebooks," Baker said. "But in the future, it may be just one notebook and several tablets."

The idea that the iPad has caused the consumer PC slow-down is understandable. "Usage tightly overlaps for the majority of people," said Baker, ticking off such things as email and Web browsing. "Most people don't move their notebooks or iPads very far, most people use them for the same kinds of things. It's easy to see why people have thought that the iPad cannibalizes PC sales."

NPD's survey also showed that consumers are passing on 3G-capable iPads, opting instead for the less-expensive Wi-Fi models. In the 2010 holiday season, for instance, the $499 Wi-Fi iPad accounted for three out of every four iPads sold at retail.

Mobile carriers -- in the U.S., that's AT&T and Verizon -- have had little luck selling the iPad, Baker said, noting that carrier stores accounted for just 3% of iPad sales during the holidays.

"The carrier stores have struggled with selling things other than phones," said Baker. "For tablets, the subsidized model hasn't really worked. Carriers aren't willing to subsidize tablets down to the price of smartphones, and customers aren't willing to pay more than that. They just do not see the utility in 3G connectivity."

Gregg Keizer covers Microsoft, security issues, Apple, Web browsers and general technology breaking news for Computerworld. Follow Gregg on Twitter at @gkeizer or subscribe to Gregg's RSS feed . His e-mail address is gkeizer@computerworld.com.

Read more about Macintosh in Computerworld's Macintosh Topic Center.

Eliminate disparate tools and maximize return on your software and hardware investments.

Learn more.

Innovation matters - learn how to rapidly deploying cost-effective, energy-efficient data centers. Click here to find out more!

Read now.

This guide explains how to simplify the migration process, ensure backup and restore procedures, and confirm post-migration verifications. Learn more!

Read now.

View the original article here

Verizon iPad With CDMA Coming In 2011? Analyst Reports That Next..

This story is kinda strange. Brain Blair, an analyst at Wedge Partners, is sharing some inside knowledge on the next iPad. Not the iPad 2, necessarily, but it could be a mid-cycle refresh for Apple. The headliner of new features for this “next iPad”, is that it will be a “World iPad” that will have both GSM and CDMA radios. Uh, does Mr. Blair know that CDMA bands are mostly an American oddity?

Since GSM is the global standard, the “Global” moniker is usually attached to Sprint and Verizon devices (both CDMA carriers) that carry a backup GSM radio with a SIM slot – for international travelers to pop in a SIM and use a local carrier. Since the iPad 3G already uses GSM bands, it makes NO sense that they’d add CDMA and then call it a “World iPad”.

Adding CDMA does make since though. Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg confirmed that the two companies are working together and this year we saw Verizon start selling the iPad with a MiFi hotspot device to get internet access on the go. Definitely a clunky solution (and very un-Apple, if we say so), so it’s possible that Apple could come out with a CDMA iPad in the future.

Blair goes on to report that the “new iPad” will be “thinner than the existing model and is essentially made from one piece of metal with no pins needed.” So, basically, Apple is going with  a new unibody construction like they’ve done with the MacBooks. Recent rumors have pinned the shell of the new iPad being made out of carbon fiber – not metal. Nobody said that a carbon fiber chassis can’t be built with unibody construction though (ask BMW).

What do you think about the odds of this “World iPad” being real?

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Analyst: Apple working on thinner, carrier-neutral iPad for 2011..

A brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new gossip is popping up, usually in time for consumers to go do their legal legal holiday tech shopping: the single researcher believes Apple (AAPL) is operative upon the new, thinner iPad for 2011 which would work upon all of the Big Four U.S. mobile carriers’ networks.

Brian Blair of equity researcher organisation Wedge Partners, has checked the numbers for Apple as good as Qualcomm (QCOM), as good as thinks Apple is building the “World iPad” which uses the single of Qualcomm’s multimode CDMA-GSM chips, according to the inform from All Things Digital. Blair’s research states which the thinly slice would capacitate it to run upon both CDMA as good as GSM networks around the universe — basically, an iPad which could hoop any carrier. It would spell the finish of the AT&T/Apple exclusivity agreement.

Apple is promissory note heavily, it seems, upon iPad being the large strike this legal legal holiday season, as good as has sole something identical to 7.46 million units as of late September. It’s display up in all kinds of brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new places — Best Buy (BBY), Target (TGT), WalMart (WMT), Verizon (VZ) retailers, AT&T (T) retailers, Amazon.com (AMZN) as good as even more. But Blair believes prolongation of the iPad is already being corroborated down during Apple in sequence to have proceed for the World iPad, as good as the small pattern deals such as the reported $399 iPads during the small TJ Maxx stores (TJX) to collect up as Apple tries to revoke iPad register forward of the next-generation rollout.

Blair additionally states the iPad will be done from the single square of steel in the brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new production process, identical to the MacBook unibody approach, as good as which it’ll embody during slightest the front-facing camera. It’s probable even some-more improvements to have the iPad work some-more universally, identical to the small kind of USB functionality, competence uncover up in the pattern as well, as Apple prepares to go toe-to-toe with tablets from alternative companies, identical to Samsung’s (005930.KS) Galaxy Tab. Samsung’s inscription is rather cheaper, not as big as good as thinner than the iPad, as good as appears to be the strongest contender opposite Apple’s widespread mobile computing device.

A brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new carrier-neutral iPad raises the small questions, even as it answers the few. Recent moves by Apple indicate it’s scheming to go over AT&T as good as open up the inclination to alternative mobile carriers. We keep conference about the CDMA iPhone in the functions for Verizon, as good as final month Apple authorised Verizon to begin offered iPads in the sell stores; though even so, the iPads could usually bond to the Verizon network with the further of Verizon’s MiFi unstable Wi-Fi hotspot device. Carrier exclusivity for the iPad 3G stays with AT&T

So for one, the gossip begs the subject of what outcome rolling out the brand brand brand brand brand brand brand new neutral iPad will have upon the assumingly burgeoning Apple/Verizon relationship. It doesn’t appear identical to this was the intrigue all along, since the single would cruise Verizon business purchasing iPads as good as MiFis wouldn’t be as well happy if the new, improved as good as reduction technology-intensive iPad became accessible usually months after purchase.

There’s additionally the state of Apple as good as AT&T to consider, as even by all this conjecture as good as sell maneuvering upon Apple’s part, it hasn’t deviated from the AT&T-only agreement up to now. If shift was coming, it feels identical to it would have done some-more clarity to have it the small progressing this year, when Apple was slinging iPads onto the shelves of all kinds of opposite stores as good as even done it accessible in the rather singular genius to Verizon.

Regardless, someone drops an Apple conduit gossip about once the full moon, so but some-more information, it’s the difficult call to make. But the single indicator competence be the state of iPad inventories in sell stores, generally after this year. If it seems identical to stores have usually enough, or fewer than the single competence expect, it competence be the pointer which the shift is coming.

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