iPad prompts Gartner to trim PC shipment forecast

PC shipments around the world should rise this year and next, according to the latest estimates from Gartner. But the forecast doesn't look as promising as it did a few months ago, largely due to the impact of the iPad and other tablets.

For 2010, computer shipments are expected to hit 352.4 million units, a 14.3 percent rise from 2009. But that estimate is down from Gartner's prior forecast in September in which it was eyeing growth of 17.9 percent for the year.

Continuing that trend, shipments should reach 409 million in 2011, a 15.9 percent gain from this year. But that forecast too is down from Gartner's September estimate of 18.1 percent for next year.

Gartner is pegging the lower forecasts on the iPad and other media tablets upsetting the applecart of personal computers.

"These results reflect marked reductions in expected near-term unit growth based on expectations of weaker consumer demand, due in no small part to growing user interest in media tablets such as the iPad," Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner, said in a statement today. "Over the longer term, media tablets are expected to displace around 10 percent of PC units by 2014."

Since its launch earlier this year, the iPad has racked up a huge number of sales. Apple sold 3 million units in the first three months alone. An analyst from Bernstein Research expects the tablet to bring in $12 billion in global sales this year followed by $20 billion next year. Some analysts have also seen or are expecting the iPad to cut into sales of portable PCs.

Beyond tablets, smartphones will also affect shipments of PCs as more people use their phones as mobile complements and even substitutes for light data use, projects Gartner. But beyond the effects of increasing demand for tablets and smartphones, a collection of forces seem to be uniting to drive down PC shipments.

With the economy still struggling to revive, consumers and businesses are putting computer purchases and replacements on hold for now. Mobile PCs for the home have seen the biggest downturn in shipments. That trend is expected to grow among mature markets and may prompt consumers to temporarily, if not permanently, turn to other mobile devices for their main computing needs, says Gartner.

As media tablets become more "PC-like" down the road, consumers may further be tempted away from buying PCs, especially Netbooks. The iPad and its brethren have already proved popular for their instant-on capability and entertainment features, according to Gartner. As tablets, phones, and other complementary devices take greater hold, the life cycle of PCs will also last longer as people feel less of a need to refresh and replace them.

Emerging markets are expected to account for 50 percent of the global PC market next year, but people in those regions might decide to bypass PCs and opt for tablets and other devices as their first computing machines.

Finally, hosted virtual desktops could start to more dramatically affect the business market by 2012, according to Gartner. That may prompt companies to rely more on refurbished PCs and thin clients to access their virtual hosts, lessening the need for new desktop PCs.

View the original article here

Gartner to CEOs: Seize the <b>iPad</b> Opportunity Now

Sydney, Australia, November 4, 2010 - The Apple iPad and its ecosystem are likely to disrupt existing technology use profiles and business models, and CEOs should ensure that its potential is being seriously evaluated inside their organizations, according to a new report from Gartner Inc. 

?It is not usually the role of the CEO to get directly involved in specific technology device decisions, but Apple's iPad is an exception,? said Stephen Prentice, Gartner Fellow and vice president. ?It is more than just the latest consumer gadget; and CEOs and business leaders should initiate a dialogue with their CIOs about if they have not already done so.? 

Gartner forecasts worldwide media tablet sales to end users to reach 19.5 million units in 2010, driven by sales of the iPad. Media tablets are poised for strong growth with worldwide end user sales projected to total 54.8 million units in 2011, up 181 percent from 2010, and surpass 208 million units in 2014. 

Unless there is a self-evident case to the contrary, Gartner recommends that IT organizations should provide at least "concierge"-level iPad support for a limited number of key users, and prepare a budgeted plan for widespread support of the iPad by mid-2011. 

?Individuals are willing to buy these devices themselves, so enterprises must be ready to support them,? said Mr. Prentice. ?While some IT departments will say they are a ?Windows shop?, and Apple does not support the enterprise. Organizations need to recognize that there are soft benefits in a device of this type in the quest to improve recruitment and retention. Technology is not always about productivity. 

Gartner also recommends that CEOs ask their marketing and product development teams to present a creative briefing as soon as possible, detailing how iPads could be used by the company and its competitors, because the iPad has the potential to be hugely disruptive to the business models and markets of many enterprises. ?We are already seeing announcements about competing devices from other vendors, including RIM, Samsung, HP and Dell, but the iPad is currently well ahead of the pack with the lion?s share of the market,? added Mr. Prentice. 

Like the iPhone before it, the iPad is an iconic device that redefines markets. Media "gurus" and forecasters struggled to categorize this device at the time of launch ? and some made the mistake of assuming that, like all tablet-format devices before it, it would remain a niche product for a limited market. 

According to Gartner analysts, the iPad is not a notebook replacement for most users, but a valuable companion device. As it is much less intrusive in face-to-face environments than conventional notebooks, it is well suited to a sales or information-sharing environment. It also makes electronic media consumption effortless and casual, thereby increasing consumption. 

As use of the iPad grows, examples are emerging in industries and professions including consumer applications (such as a personal stock portfolio review), book and magazine publishing, architects and realtors sharing plans in the field, finance specialists sharing quotations with prospects, and salespeople looking to demonstrate interactive presentations. Interest from the healthcare sector is high, but the inability of the device to withstand sanitization or operate inside a sealed pouch is a limitation. 

With an undeniable "style" factor and ease of use, as well as various multitouch, display and communications capabilities, the iPad makes a strong statement in many customer-facing sectors, such as retail, hospitality and tourism. In transportation, especially aviation, Australian carrier Jetstar is trialing an iPad rental service for in-flight entertainment, and Malaysia Airlines is using iPads in a kiosk mount as self-service check-in devices. 

Gartner advises CEOs to act sooner rather than later. 

?While there are no certainties, the iPad looks set to become a market-disrupting device, like the iPod before it,? said Mr. Prentice. ?Even if you think it is just a passing fad, the cost of early action is low, while the price of delay may well be extremely high,? said Mr. Prentice.

View the original article here