Caris & Company analyst Robert Cihra today raised his price target on Apple (AAPL) to $400 from $375 while maintaining a Buy rating, after raising his estimates on the company to reflect the fact that the iPad may drive half the company’s growth in 2011, and that online services are the next big area for Apple.
Cihra raised his estimate for the December fiscal Q1 to $25.5 billion in revenue and $5.60 in EPS, up from a prior $25 billion and $5.49. He also offered a 2012 estimates of $97 billion in revenue and $20.62 in EPS, which he notes is higher than the Street’s $88 billion and $19.06 per share. At that rate, Cihra models Apple crossing $100 billion in sales at the end of calendar 2012.
The numbers are “stunning,” especially the 62% year over year growth in revenue and 52% growth in profit this quarter, “given how large a base it’s now working from,” writes Cihra.
Cihra raised his iPad estimate for calendar 2011 to 36 million units, from 26 million.
The iPhone, which should probably deliver 64 million units in fiscal 2011, will be 40% of revenue growth, while Macs will grow at double the rate of the overall PC market, up 19% next year.
What’s next? Cihra sees Apple’s iOS software, not the iPad per se, as being the key. The devices, he believes, push the world into thin-client computing access, leading to perhaps a multi-year opportunity for Apple in “cloud-based services.”
Cihra notes Apple doubled capital expenditures last fiscal year, to $2.6 billion. Of that, $2.2 billion was capex that was not for Apple retail stores. That amount was up 183% last year. Apple’s capex will be up 55% in 2011, at $4 billion.
“Expectations are high for Apple to soon flick the switch at its massive new data center build in North Carolina,” writes Cihra.
Apple shares this afternoon are down 96 cents, or 0.3%, at $317.18.
